The Fragile Routes to the West of England - Wessex Sub Aqueanus

Over the last month, we have seen the fragility of the transport infrastructure through Wessex.  First we had the closure of the A303 in Somerset A303 between the Podimore and Cartgate Roundabouts on Christmas Eve when the River Yeo burst its banks.

Then we had a second closure of the A303, at the Deptford Junction with the A36, caused by rising groundwater levels on the western edge of Salisbury Plain.  Even after the initial flood subsided a wee bit, we still had a contraflow working for some time as it took some time for all carriageways and the slip roads to clear.  Even this week, the A303 westbound has been closed at night to allow the damage caused by the flooding to be repaired.

The rain has continued at a lower intensity for the last couple of weeks, and the A303 seems to be safe for the moment.  That said, groundwater levels haven't dropped at all on Salisbury Plain, even though the levels in the River Till, through Winterbourne Stoke have dropped around 5-10 cm.  Today, the Tilshead borehole levels look like this:

Of course, yesterday, we had yet more rain and storm surges throughout the Wessex region.  We had 14.7mm here in Winterbourne Stoke, but that was trivial compared to levels further West.  The Somerset Levels,  already suffering for over a month from the floods, exacerbated by the abject failure of the Environment Agency to effectively dredge blocked water channels, has water levels rising yet again.  King Canute couldn't hold back the water and sadly, it seems, neither can Prince Charles - but at least he took the time to go, showed REAL understanding of the issues and concerned for those he met.

The rain and the spring tides and high winds wrought damage further west in Dawlish, tearing out the ballast under the main line from Exeter to Penzance, ripping out the adjacent road and threatening houses and businesses.

This morning on  TV,  a Network Rail spokesman was suggesting that it might take 6 weeks and tens of millions of pounds, if not one to two hundred million pounds,  to put right the damage caused in an hour of nature at its most furious.  And still more rain and high winds are predicted in the coming days - with rain levels on high ground predicted to be up to 20-40mm per day - higher than anything we have seen this winter by a good margin.

This all raises a number of very important questions for the Wessex transport infrastucture.  We have lost the major rail line for a number of weeks - assuming there is no further damage.  Passengers and freight are going to have to transfer to the roads - the A303 and the M4/M5 further north.  With the additional predicted rain, there seems to be a possibility that further flooding of the A303 might occur this weekend or early next week - pushing all that traffic on to the northern route.  

Engineers talk of a "single point of failure" (SPOF!), which is the part of a system, that if it fails, will cause the rest of the system to fail.  With multiple means of transport through Wessex, there was no SPOF, but it is possible that within hours or days, there will only be one point in the transport infrastructure left and only one to fail - the M4/M5 corridor.  A single minor incident on the motorway could stop traffic in any numbers getting through Wiltshire/Avon and in to Devon and Cornwall. Diversionary routes south through the Somerset levels are simply not viable.

I hope politicians locally and nationally are looking at this and thinking of the consequences.  In our campaign to improve the A303 west from the Hampshire border, we are often told that it will be the economic case that decides whether the A303 is improved,  rather than providing yet more roads/extra carriageways  in urban areas.  Somerset Council are pretty much on the ball and have made an excellent financial case for improving the A303/A358/A30 corridor.  Wiltshire Council seem to be riding very much on their coat tails - or worse.  Their level of engagement and activity has been described to me in very graphic terms:  "Thumbs up bums - brains in neutral!"  Certainly, trying to get a response from those with a transport brief on the Council is nigh on impossible - Wiltshire Council - where people mutter.

Perhaps Mother Nature has done us a major service by pointing out the real economic issues involved here.  From Stonehenge westwards along the whole of the A303/A358/A30 corridor, tourism is the major industry - and to take advantage of tourism, there is one over-riding priority - to get the tourists to the places they want to visit.  No means of the tourist getting there, no tourism.  No tourism, no jobs.  No jobs - no economy.

To support the tourism, goods need to be shipped in.  No rail and no road, no goods shipped in.  No goods, no tourists, no employment, no economy.  And, of course, everything that goes in has to get out again - along the same. limited routes.

For the Wessex region, it really is that simple - the transport infrastructure is its life blood - and with so few alternatives, it really is a unique situation that must be addressed as such.  Perhaps even Wiltshire Council can be encouraged to de-digitate and get on with it!