The Measure of Misery - 4-5 Solitons Solitons Per Hour

Standing by the side of the A303 this Bank Holiday weekend, watching the traffic slow down and eventually grind to a halt, is a good excuse to contemplate the infinite, to ponder those deep philosophical questions that have troubled mankind for years.

I was going to suggest it was an opportunity to contemplate ones own navel, but it was a darned sight too cold for that and, in any event, it may be of uncertain legality and is definitely of dubious taste - at least in my case.

Anyway, the deep question I was pondering, watching all those grey and grim-set faces behind the windscreens was: "How do you measure misery?'

I think I now have an answer.  It's 4-5 Solitons Per Hour.

A few weeks ago, I explained how people slowing at Stonehenge could create a soliton generator near Stonehenge and there were others at Longbarrow Roundabout and Stonehenge Bottom.  

Westbound traffic and eastbound soliton

Basically, vehicles joins a queue of traffic faster than than they can leave it, so the point at which traffic stops on the road, moves backwards,  against the direction of vehicle travel, until it meets another soliton and things jam solid, or it meets a stretch of traffic-free road and simply vanishes.   Today, I was watching traffic in Winterbourne Stoke go east and the soliton travel west, from Longbarrow Roundabout back to Winterbourne Stoke and the dual carriageway at Berwick Down.  People-watching is always fascinating, but even more so today as the traffic slowed to a stop.

I've noticed over the last few weeks that these solitons build and disappear in a fairly systematic way.  The periodicity changes in response to traffic volume, so the more traffic, the shorter the interval between solitons.  You can measure this periodicity in solitons per hour (SPH).  Now the fun thing is that people's demeanour changes in response to this periodicity - the higher the SPH, the deeper the misery of the car occupants.  It also changes their reaction to someone stood at the side of the road with a STAG sign and a video camera.

At 0 solitons per hour, the drivers see you, look sheepish as going 60 mph or more in a 40 mph zone is tearing the arse out of things a wee bit and they worry you might be a speed camera or something.   This effect can be enhanced by wearing a yellow, high-vis, dayglo jacket.  Passengers laugh at driver.

At 1 soliton per hour, the drivers sigh a bit, but they are travelling less than 10 mph over the speed limit, so aren't too worried you are a speed camera.  Drivers sweat a bit when they fail to see stationary car ahead.

At 2 solitons per hour, the drivers know you aren't a speed camera and don't give a stuff about you, as they are being slowed on their way home.  Passengers are busting for a pee and they should have stopped at the last place that had a toilet before Wylye.  Still, it benefits the Bell Inn in Winterbourne Stoke with additional passing trade.

At 3 solitons per hour, drivers glare at you, make obscene gestures and frequently open the window and swear at you. They really do seem to blame you for the fact they are stuck in this traffic jam.   Driver screams at passengers and they scream back.  The A303 becomes a place of learning - that is if you want to learn some of the choicer ways to use expletives.  Some drivers try to drive threateningly at the camera and then fail to notice the crossing lights are on red or a driver is turning in or out of the petrol station or pub - yet another near miss!   Smiling at them doesn't seem to help their mood, though it is cathartic for the traffic-watcher.  Waving is even more fun.

At 4 solitons per hour everything changes.  Drivers are no longer angry and abusive.  Instead they seemed resigned to their fate - like a condemned prisoner in a tumbrel, heading to the gallows, with passengers who seem to relish the prospect of joining them.  They attempt to smile in a thin-lipped, dejected way and will sometimes wind their windows down and engage you in conversation.

As I packed up to go home, another soliton was forming and the drivers reaction seemed to be the same.  On the basis of this, then I reckon the Measure of Misery is about 4-5 solitons per hour.

I trundled home to write this piece and then I had a flash of inspiration.  I had finally understood the true meaning of the answer and thus had finally got to grips with the nature of the question.   Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy fans will recall that "42" was the answer to life, the universe and everything and that, according to the book, the earth was created to determine what the ultimate question actually was.

Now, I'm beginning to think that the answer wasn't 42, as a numeral, but the first part of a statement "4 to"  as in "4 to 5" or "4 to 400" or even "4 to Infinity"   Of course, as infinity is big, really big, so it wouldn't all fit onto a computer screen.  Consequently, it seems adamantly (even Douglas Adamantly) reasonable to output just the first bit  - "4 to".

Now if that's the real answer, the question now becomes obvious.  "What is the Measure of Misery".

Clearly, Stonehenge is simply the on-off switch for the computer created by the multi-dimensional creatures who resemble white mice.  Experts in the field will see the problem here.  Whilst we are pushing to get the A303 dualled as a means of eliminating traffic misery, the blasted Vogons are intent on eliminating us entirely to construct a new hyperspace bypass.

SWMBO reckons I've been out playing with the traffic for waaaaaaaaaay to long!

The Stonehenge Effect - Why Not All Traffic Jams Are Equal - A Soliton For the Masses

This weekend was set to be the first sunny weekend of 2014 - and only a week away from Easter.  We were expecting problems with the volume of traffic and jams westbound on Friday and Saturday morning and we anticipate more heading eastbound this evening.  However, the jams have been a little odd, to say the least.  On Friday afternoon,  we had the anticipated westbound tailbacks at the Countess roundabout in Amesbury, but traffic through Winterbourne Stoke was steady and not excessively heavy.  Strangely, the Highways Agency camera that is located near to the Solstice Park in Amesbury was out of action.  Strange that; it seems to happen an awful lot when the A303 is busy.  "Conspiracy " you cry!  Well, you might be right, the Highways Agency can't always be allowed to get away with the excuse of coincidental equipment failure or incompetence.  Perhaps they really are switching off cameras that might cause them embarrassment?

Expecting heavy westbound traffic, SWMBO left Winterbourne Stoke at 4:00pm on Friday - often a peak jam time - and drove to Barnstaple in North Devon.  She later reported that the drive was easy and traffic was very light.  Odd, given the massive tailbacks east of here

Eastbound traffic wasn't playing ball either.  From late morning to late afternoon, the eastbound traffic was virtually at a standstill; tailing back as far as the A36 interchange at Deptford.

Eastbound traffic at Winterbourne Stoke

Spire FM, our local radio station was expressing a degree of surprise as no-one appeared to know what was causing the jam.  Curiouser and curiouser.

On Saturday morning, we held a STAG meeting to discuss activities in the run-up to Easter; a period we expect to be hellish as it is going to be the first potentially warm and sunny Bank Holiday since the new Stonehenge Visitor's Centre opened and the half-baked changes to the Longbarrow Roundabout completed.  We agreed to take a look at the A303 at Stonehenge Bottom and in Winterbourne Stoke and leaflet the standing traffic if the opportunity arose.

When we got back to Winterbourne Stoke from Shrewton, we were staggered to see that there was so little traffic to be seen on the A303.  We really though there had been an accident and we checked all our usual sources of information.  No, nothing.  Puzzled, we fired a text message to Stagman and Watch Bustard to tell them that traffic was light.

Saturday Afternoon in Winterbourne Stoke - Where's the traffic?

Seconds later, we got a somewhat incredulous reply from Stagman who was by the side of the westbound A303 opposite Stonhenge Cottages - just to the east of Stonehenge Bottom.   Stagman pointed out that he was, as we exchanged text messages, wandering between two lanes of standing traffic distributing STAG leaflets.   Good to see that he was purposeful in this activity as otherwise he might have been accused of ganderflanking - we can't be having any of that can we?

Compare what was going on at Winterbourne Stoke above to the situation at Stonehenge Bottom at exactly the same time:

Westbound A303 - Stonehenge Hoves Into View

 The view back towards Amesbury looked like this:

Westbound Traffic and the Stagmobile

Don't worry, Stagman's sign is double-sided, so the westbound travellers could see it and passengers could snap the QR code on their mobile phones and get linked to the STAG petition.

We were so STAGgered by the contrast that we recorded 30 minutes of westbound A303 traffic as a video.  We've either speeded it up a wee bit or most of the traffic was travelling at over 400mph.  Either way, the clip only last about 18 seconds!

Clearly, something odd has been happening.  Despite it being a fine and sunny weekend, it seems the level of traffic on the A303 has been surprisingly light; certainly much less than we had anticipated.  We expect that we are going to see that sort of traffic density from mid-Maundy Thursday into next weekend.   So this odd phenomenon over the weekend seems to be the first confirmed case of the "Stonehenge Effect".

So what is the Stonehenge Effect?  Well, it seems that the closure of the A344 and the "visit Stonehenge by timed appointment (preferred) policy" has driven the majority of those who used to stop on the A344 for a few minutes, or those who might pop in for a 30 minute look-see, to do something else.

Those of you who regularly use the A303 know exactly what they do.  They get parallel with the stones, just west of Stonehenge Bottom, they slow, or even come to a complete stop, then a passenger or even the driver will whip out a smart-phone or camera and take a snap - or even a selfie!   "It's only a second or ten," they would plead if stopped by Wiltshire Police's finest.  "What harm can it possibly do?

Well, dear traveller.  It seems that you have been the victim of something called a soliton - a self-reinforcing solitary wave.  It's a well recognised phenomenon on roads and motorways that is also called a traffic wave, a stop wave, or a traffic shock.  It's usually created when some muppet brakes hard in traffic for no apparent reason, or changes lane without indicating, forcing traffic behind to brake as well.  Now cars can join a queue of standing traffic faster than they can leave the queue, so normally the soliton travels back down the road in the opposite direction to the normal traffic flow as shown in the diagram below.  The blue bulge represents the volume of traffic on a "normal" road.  Here the traffic is trying to go from right to left.  The big red arrow shows that when the soliton forms, it moves against the traffic - once the event that caused. it in the first place has ended.

However, at Stonehenge Bottom, we have a nightmare situation.  Lots of similar soliton-generating events are happening at exactly the same point on the A303 - by Stonehenge.  In this case, once the soliton has formed, the start point stays exactly where it was and the end keeps on travelling back against the traffic flow.   It should be fairly obvious that a major jam is going to form even with relatively light traffic and that is why we have been having problems all winter.

Soliton's also form when sheer volume of traffic blocks the A303 at choke points or turnings - such as the ends of each dual-carriageway section of the road where traffic is compressed back into a single carriageway.  When the westbound traffic is really busy on the A303, a second soliton is often formed west of Winterbourne Stoke near Deptford and the rear of the soliton moves back east towards Winterbourne Stoke and collides with the leading edge of the Stonehenge soliton.  The result is a massive and persistent jam - such as the ones that will begin next weekend.

What can be done about it and how can we stop the soliton's forming before the A303 is dualled?  Fairly simply, maybe.  Traffic management, pure and simple.  The best way to achieve this is probably counter-intuitive, but it would simply to be to turn the A303 back into a single carriageway road, on all the dualled sections, from Thursday lunchtime to Monday lunchtime.  That would get rid of all the 2-into-1 soliton's.  The Stonehenge soliton can be prevented if the traffic is kept moving continuously through the World Heritage site.  The best way to do this would be to prevent cars from seeing the stones.  If this can't be done, because it conflicts with World Heritage Site aspirations, etc., then the section of road must be policed effectively with the full economic costs of doing this falling to the Department of Culture, Media and Sport.

So, we now have another meaning for our SH2 symbol - in addition to parasitising HS2 with its meaning of "Stonehenge Dual-carriageway" it now can also mean "Soliton Here As Well!"