Does "A Degree Of Success" Amount To Abject Failure?

On Thursday, the Western Morning News ran a story on comments from Roads Minister, Robert Goodwill under the headline: "Minister promises 'success' in A303 funding campaign."  The same story ran in the Western Daily Press yesterday and this was featured in our sister blog STAG Stonehenge Traffic Action Group.   But was the story really such good news?

What Robert Goodwill seems to have actually said, in response to a question specifically about funding for the A47 improvement plan was:

"I should like to make it clear that this is not a competition in which there can only be one winner,"

"I hazard to suggest that there will be a degree of success in all six areas that we have identified."

OK, so he is merely suggesting that all 6 schemes might have a degree of success - at best maybe an unsubtle hint, at worst a face-saving expedient to give the impression of substance where in reality, there is only a wisp of smoke.

Even if he is correct, what benefit is a "degree of success?"  I would argue very little, four-fifths of bugger-all, not a lot, nothing of any real value. 

Why?  Well, isn't it obvious?   Simply improving a few bits of the A303/A358/A30 isn't anything more than window-dressing - it might make a bit of the road look prettier, but isn't going to have any major impact on journey times along the whole length of the road.  In fact, a "degree of success" is probably a more PC way to describe an abject failure. 

My fear is that this is the first stage of a British government saying, yet again, that they haven't the collective wit, wisdom, or motivation to solve the problem of getting the A303 past Stonehenge and the Blackdown Hills.

Never forget:

"Under every stone lurks a politician!"

                              Aristophanes

                            

Minister promises ‘success’ in A303 funding campaign
Read more at http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Minister-promises-8216-success-8217-A303-funding/story-21102168-detail/story.html#JUCUCWzyLYuD7Opr.99

Minister promises ‘success’ in A303 funding campaign
Read more at http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Minister-promises-8216-success-8217-A303-funding/story-21102168-detail/story.html#JUCUCWzyLYuD7Opr.99

Minister promises ‘success’ in A303 funding campaign
Read more at http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Minister-promises-8216-success-8217-A303-funding/story-21102168-detail/story.html#JUCUCWzyLYuD7Opr.99

No Plan Survives Contact With The Enemy...

...in this case, the "enemy" was the great British travelling public heading westbound for the West Country this Easter weekend.  Clearly, they weren't the type of enemy that Field Marshal Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke (usually referred to as Moltke the Elder) had in mind when he first came out with the phrase: "No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main strength" (more usually shortened to : "no plan survives contact with the enemy,") Von Molke, generally regarded as the best military strategist of the late 19th century, the "inventor" of the terminology of red and blue forces in military wargaming,  was also a master logistician who understood the issues involved in moving large numbers of men and machines around - hence his relevance to the A303.

Back on the 24th of March, at a meeting sponsored by Inspector Christian Lange of Wiltshire Police, most of the interested parties got round a table to try and sort out a few expedient measures to ease the anticipated traffic hell over the Easter weekend.  Lots of ideas were put forward and people went off to beaver away to put things in place as quickly as possible.

Perhaps the organisation with the most to do was English Heritage. To their credit, having taken on board what was needed, Kate Davies, the General Manager at Stonehenge, got a lot done in a very short space of time.  Here is what the folks at Stonehenge had implemented in time for the anticipated rush the is weekend and a few of the the things they have planned for the the longer term.  The hope was that by improving the traffic situation on the A360 between the Stonehenge Visitors Centre entrance at Airman's Cross and the Longbarrow Roundabout on the A303, their would be less of an impact on both the local traffic on the A360 and the holidaymakers on the A303. In Kate Davies' own words, these are the measures they put in place and plan:

"Our overflow car par is now open and we have purchased tracking to cover main areas of wear in overflow car park (i.e. entrance and exit) to ensure use in all weathers. 
 
We have car park attendants directing all cars on arrival, ensuring every space is utilised.
 
A £5 car parking charge will be in operation to non-ticket holders to deter people using the car park as a service station during busy times.
 
A large scale marketing campaign commenced in March to promote ‘pre-book essential’ message.  
This marketing included national campaign and regional London and South-West campaign in a variety of different formats (film, poster, digital etc).  Digital adverts include placements on AA Routeplanner (these are activated when any journey passes the Stonehenge area).
 
We also have a social media campaign to push pre-booking.  As more people become aware of our timed-ticketing system, we’ll have less visitor bottlenecks.  We have seen a month-on-month increase in the number of people booking in advance. 
       
We have contact numbers for AA Road-watch, National and local radio traffic bulletins, FRIXO etc. ready to send out messages when we are approaching capacity.

We have also commissioned a feasibility study for variable message sign on the A303 via Highways Agency.  Whilst we await this we have temporary AA yellow signs to alert people if the car park is full to place near to the visitor centre".

That takes us back to Moltke the Elder.  Despite every traffic expert predicting that the volume of traffic on the A303 would be horrendous and there would be huge traffic jams, the volume of traffic has been much, much less than expected.  The "enemy", the travelling public has done the unexpected.  They didn't all head westwards on Thursday, nor on Friday.  Here in Winterbourne Stoke, there were never more than 25-30 vehicles per minute and the traffic was really only stationary when someone used the pedestrian crossing.  Here's a still from a video taken on Good Friday at a time we would normally expect stationary traffic nose-to-tail through the village.

Of course, those of you who were using the A303 on Maundy Thursday or Good Friday probably got stuck for long periods on the approach to Countess Roundabout in Amesbury and onwards, past Stonehenge, until you got tp the Longbarrow Roundabout.  Here's a shot taken by the Highways Agency traffic camera at Solstice Park in Amesbury, a few minutes before the video above was shot:

 Clearly, standing traffic down to the Countess Roundabout.  Whatever is causing THIS jam has nothing to do with the volume of traffic, as this Easter weekend has been significantly quieter than your average Thursday of Friday. 

It has everything to do with the behaviour of some motorists as they pass Stonehenge.  In our previous post, we proposed an explanation for what is going on, how it affects the traffic and how it might be prevented. 

However, it is achieved, the traffic past Stonehenge has to be prevented from stopping to get a better view of the stones, to take a snap...

or even, as in the case of one of Norbert Dentressangle's finest, slowing to a stop to pull off the A303 at Stonehenge Bottom to have a nap (there are proper lay-bys only a km or so east or west of this point)!

So, the grand plans to cope with large volumes of traffic didn't survive contact with the "enemy", because by and large, the "enemy" chose not to come to Wiltshire this Easter.  However, what we have learned this weekend is that none of the measures that have been instituted, so far, survived contact with even the few westbound 'enemy" that did put in an appearance.  That isn't good news and doesn't bode well for high summer.

 Perhaps simply blocking the view of Stonehenge from the A303 - however incomplete and imperfect that would have to be, as a short-term, temporary, and expedient measure - might be the only realistic option.

The Stonehenge Effect - Why Not All Traffic Jams Are Equal - A Soliton For the Masses

This weekend was set to be the first sunny weekend of 2014 - and only a week away from Easter.  We were expecting problems with the volume of traffic and jams westbound on Friday and Saturday morning and we anticipate more heading eastbound this evening.  However, the jams have been a little odd, to say the least.  On Friday afternoon,  we had the anticipated westbound tailbacks at the Countess roundabout in Amesbury, but traffic through Winterbourne Stoke was steady and not excessively heavy.  Strangely, the Highways Agency camera that is located near to the Solstice Park in Amesbury was out of action.  Strange that; it seems to happen an awful lot when the A303 is busy.  "Conspiracy " you cry!  Well, you might be right, the Highways Agency can't always be allowed to get away with the excuse of coincidental equipment failure or incompetence.  Perhaps they really are switching off cameras that might cause them embarrassment?

Expecting heavy westbound traffic, SWMBO left Winterbourne Stoke at 4:00pm on Friday - often a peak jam time - and drove to Barnstaple in North Devon.  She later reported that the drive was easy and traffic was very light.  Odd, given the massive tailbacks east of here

Eastbound traffic wasn't playing ball either.  From late morning to late afternoon, the eastbound traffic was virtually at a standstill; tailing back as far as the A36 interchange at Deptford.

Eastbound traffic at Winterbourne Stoke

Spire FM, our local radio station was expressing a degree of surprise as no-one appeared to know what was causing the jam.  Curiouser and curiouser.

On Saturday morning, we held a STAG meeting to discuss activities in the run-up to Easter; a period we expect to be hellish as it is going to be the first potentially warm and sunny Bank Holiday since the new Stonehenge Visitor's Centre opened and the half-baked changes to the Longbarrow Roundabout completed.  We agreed to take a look at the A303 at Stonehenge Bottom and in Winterbourne Stoke and leaflet the standing traffic if the opportunity arose.

When we got back to Winterbourne Stoke from Shrewton, we were staggered to see that there was so little traffic to be seen on the A303.  We really though there had been an accident and we checked all our usual sources of information.  No, nothing.  Puzzled, we fired a text message to Stagman and Watch Bustard to tell them that traffic was light.

Saturday Afternoon in Winterbourne Stoke - Where's the traffic?

Seconds later, we got a somewhat incredulous reply from Stagman who was by the side of the westbound A303 opposite Stonhenge Cottages - just to the east of Stonehenge Bottom.   Stagman pointed out that he was, as we exchanged text messages, wandering between two lanes of standing traffic distributing STAG leaflets.   Good to see that he was purposeful in this activity as otherwise he might have been accused of ganderflanking - we can't be having any of that can we?

Compare what was going on at Winterbourne Stoke above to the situation at Stonehenge Bottom at exactly the same time:

Westbound A303 - Stonehenge Hoves Into View

 The view back towards Amesbury looked like this:

Westbound Traffic and the Stagmobile

Don't worry, Stagman's sign is double-sided, so the westbound travellers could see it and passengers could snap the QR code on their mobile phones and get linked to the STAG petition.

We were so STAGgered by the contrast that we recorded 30 minutes of westbound A303 traffic as a video.  We've either speeded it up a wee bit or most of the traffic was travelling at over 400mph.  Either way, the clip only last about 18 seconds!

Clearly, something odd has been happening.  Despite it being a fine and sunny weekend, it seems the level of traffic on the A303 has been surprisingly light; certainly much less than we had anticipated.  We expect that we are going to see that sort of traffic density from mid-Maundy Thursday into next weekend.   So this odd phenomenon over the weekend seems to be the first confirmed case of the "Stonehenge Effect".

So what is the Stonehenge Effect?  Well, it seems that the closure of the A344 and the "visit Stonehenge by timed appointment (preferred) policy" has driven the majority of those who used to stop on the A344 for a few minutes, or those who might pop in for a 30 minute look-see, to do something else.

Those of you who regularly use the A303 know exactly what they do.  They get parallel with the stones, just west of Stonehenge Bottom, they slow, or even come to a complete stop, then a passenger or even the driver will whip out a smart-phone or camera and take a snap - or even a selfie!   "It's only a second or ten," they would plead if stopped by Wiltshire Police's finest.  "What harm can it possibly do?

Well, dear traveller.  It seems that you have been the victim of something called a soliton - a self-reinforcing solitary wave.  It's a well recognised phenomenon on roads and motorways that is also called a traffic wave, a stop wave, or a traffic shock.  It's usually created when some muppet brakes hard in traffic for no apparent reason, or changes lane without indicating, forcing traffic behind to brake as well.  Now cars can join a queue of standing traffic faster than they can leave the queue, so normally the soliton travels back down the road in the opposite direction to the normal traffic flow as shown in the diagram below.  The blue bulge represents the volume of traffic on a "normal" road.  Here the traffic is trying to go from right to left.  The big red arrow shows that when the soliton forms, it moves against the traffic - once the event that caused. it in the first place has ended.

However, at Stonehenge Bottom, we have a nightmare situation.  Lots of similar soliton-generating events are happening at exactly the same point on the A303 - by Stonehenge.  In this case, once the soliton has formed, the start point stays exactly where it was and the end keeps on travelling back against the traffic flow.   It should be fairly obvious that a major jam is going to form even with relatively light traffic and that is why we have been having problems all winter.

Soliton's also form when sheer volume of traffic blocks the A303 at choke points or turnings - such as the ends of each dual-carriageway section of the road where traffic is compressed back into a single carriageway.  When the westbound traffic is really busy on the A303, a second soliton is often formed west of Winterbourne Stoke near Deptford and the rear of the soliton moves back east towards Winterbourne Stoke and collides with the leading edge of the Stonehenge soliton.  The result is a massive and persistent jam - such as the ones that will begin next weekend.

What can be done about it and how can we stop the soliton's forming before the A303 is dualled?  Fairly simply, maybe.  Traffic management, pure and simple.  The best way to achieve this is probably counter-intuitive, but it would simply to be to turn the A303 back into a single carriageway road, on all the dualled sections, from Thursday lunchtime to Monday lunchtime.  That would get rid of all the 2-into-1 soliton's.  The Stonehenge soliton can be prevented if the traffic is kept moving continuously through the World Heritage site.  The best way to do this would be to prevent cars from seeing the stones.  If this can't be done, because it conflicts with World Heritage Site aspirations, etc., then the section of road must be policed effectively with the full economic costs of doing this falling to the Department of Culture, Media and Sport.

So, we now have another meaning for our SH2 symbol - in addition to parasitising HS2 with its meaning of "Stonehenge Dual-carriageway" it now can also mean "Soliton Here As Well!"

Devon County Council Thinking on the A303/A30 Stuck in the Devonian Age

Devon County Council currently have a survey running on the SurveyMonkey website.  You can find it here.

The sad thing is, when you read the questions it seems that Devon County Council are thinking along very narrow lines.  Statements like:

"Recognising that much of this stretch is through the Blackdown Hills which is designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, any solution must be sensitive to the environment. Given the economic climate, it is also likely that any improvements will take place over a long period of time, so they must be planned and work in harmony together as the scheme evolves. Dualling is not likely to occur, but please outline your thoughts on how the problems detailed above might be solved", are terribly negative, and yet positively Devonian (in the geological sense!).  This attitude to the A303 is depressingly common. 

If you ever use the A303 over the Blackdown Hills, I strongly urge you to take the survey and let Devon County Council know what you think about the problems that need to be addressed and the opportunities that exist to solve them.

Like the Stonehenge A303 section, the Blackdown Hills are going to be a hotbed of contention and rightly so, it's another beautiful area of the country and part of the reason many are heading west in the first place.  Just like the Stonehenge section, there are lots of vested interests and pet solutions that cloud the issue, get folks hot under the collar and divert them from productive thinking.  So, as with Stonehenge, the Blackdown Hills need special attention.

What is it we are actually trying to achieve along the A303/A30 corridor and what are the compromises that no-one wants to make?  I'd argue the following, and given the recent problems with the Exeter-Penzance rail line, I'd argue even more strenuously than previously:

- we want a fast, reliable and sustainable route running from the Hampshire border to the tip of Cornwall;
- we want to maximise the number of routes (rail, A303 M4/M5) as far westwards as possible for maximum resilience;
- it must have minimal impact on local communities;
- it must have minimal impact on areas of outstanding natural beauty, SSI and the like;
- it has to be affordable

The route options seem to be along the current route of the A303 - it's always going to be hilly and have twists and turns and be vulnerable to adverse weather, but it does have the advantage of being short and impacting on a very small population.

Second is diverting off the current A303 at Ilminster, along the A358 towards Taunton and then joining the M5.  Attractive to some as it avoids the Blackdown Hills, but is the least resilient route option available as it merges all the east-west traffic well to the east of Exeter.

Third is the southern option, cutting south west from Ilminster and then following the path of the A35, between the Blackdown Hills AONB and the East Devon AONB.  The attraction of this route is that it avoids cutting through the centre of the Blackdown Hills AONB and keeps two trunk roads running to the west until Exeter.  On the downside, it is the route that would affect the greatest number of communities and two AONB.

But again, perhaps innovation is needed here.  Who says that both carriageways of the A303 have to run along the same route?  A  fourth option would be to take westbound traffic along the current route of the A303 and A30 from Ilminster to Exeter.  Eastbound traffic could be routed along the M5 to Taunton and back to the current route at Ilminster.  Of course, this might prove an absolute embuggerance for the small communities along the current route of the A303, but it's a question that needs to be asked.   There are possibly other innovative solutions  - westbound via the A35 and eastbound via the M5, etc - but all need to be identified and put on the table!

A Treatise on Not Cutting the Mustard?

Some of the questions that have been puzzling us for a while now are:

How do you go about establishing the cost:benefit of upgrading the A303 to dual carriageway?

How do you determine if the cost is affordable?

What do we actually mean by "cost" and "affordability"?

These are more than just semantic questions because, to a large extent, they should underpin the entire A303 feasibility study now underway.

We would argue that while both "cost" and "affordability" clearly have major financial components, there are many other non-financial issues that need to be taken into consideration when determining the feasibility of any solution to the A303's problems.  This is a topic we will be re-examining from time to time over the coming months, but this week, we've had the opportunity to look at a couple of the issues - financial cost and national infrastructure resilience,  in a slightly different way.  Why?  Well, Network Rail were able to reopen the main Exeter to Penzance railway line, through Dawlish, to South Devon and Cornwall after the damage wreaked by the February storms.

The line was closed for 8 weeks and the repairs are said to have costed £35 million - but what does that really mean.

Shortly after the first storm ripped the coastal track apart, two other events happened that impacted on travel to Devon and Cornwall from the rest of the UK.  First there was flooding and a crash on the A303.  Because of flooding on many of the roads to the north and south of the A303, there were no alternative diversions. The only option for westbound travellers was to backtrack to Wiltshire and head north for the M4.

Then the unthinkable happened - a crash on the westbound M4 closed that as well.  We spoke to some fairly senior Highways Agency chaps a couple of weeks ago, who volunteered that the agencies involved in clearing this accident from the carriageway had been put under an immense amount of pressure to do so - and to do it damn quickly.  Mother Nature and Murphy's Law had combined to make the point that the national transport infrastucture to the west of England was not exactly resilient.  For a couple of hours there was no usable, direct east-west route across the south of England.  OK, it was only for a couple of hours, but even that ought to make people sit up and think seriously about transport resilience.   Every time the A303 is at a standstill, one third of the strategic routes to the West Country are not operational.  The same is true for the rail route and the M4/M5.

So what financial value do these routes have?  Is it possible to make a stab at the financial impact the rail closure has had?  Well yes, it is and folks in Devon and Cornwall have been doing just that.  Visit Devon reckons that the tourist industry in Devon has lost around £31 million over the eight weeks closure.  Visit Cornwall reckons the loss to the Cornish tourist industry has been around £18 million. 

The financial loss jusst to the city of Plymouth has been estimated at £1 million pounds a day - another £50 million.  Plymouth has a population of over quarter of a million.  As the population of Devon runs to over a million souls and Cornwall another half a million, then the pro-rata costs of losing the Exeter to Penzance line for 8 weeks has probably been in excess of £400 million, or £50 million a week.  So the financial value of 1/3 of the strategic routes into the West of England is £50 million per week - just for Devon and Cornwall.

If each of the three routes is equally valuable, then the same thinking could be applied to the A303 - which also passes through Wiltshire and Somerset and the problems on it affect both those counties too.  Lets be conservative though and halve the financial impact of the A303 on the residents of Somerset and Wiltshire, as we have more alternative north/south routes.   That would increase the "value" of the A303 to the economy of the West of England to £70 million per week:  £10 million per day.

So, as most traffic uses the A303 during the hours of daylight, the working day, that's roughly £1 million per hour.  Next time you get delayed or stuck on the A303 for an hour or two, just think of what that delay is costing the economy - and then add in your own and your fellow travellers costs - and a sum to compensate for the inconvenience, the added pollution, the stress, and the list goes on.

Now, let's be honest here.  We've taken figures snatched out of the air by others with no idea of their reliability, mixed them up with some fairly accurate demographics and then made a sweeping assumption about relative values of road and rail routes - at best a SWAG ( a scientific, wild-arsed guess).  But if decisions are going to be made about the future of the A303 on "cost" grounds, then these are the very types of numbers that we should expect Government to be able to present - but in their case, with a full audit trail. 

Anything less won't cut the mustard.

John Glen's A303 Blitzkrieg Continues

In yesterday's post we promised to provide more detail on the Commons debate on the A303 yesterday.  As John Glen MP has done a stirling job in putting it on his own blog, there seems little point in duplicating his effort.

So, look here for the details of the debate.

One extract from John's blog that bears repeating here, as it sums up the feelings of many in STAG and in the villages alongside the A303, the A358 and the A30, of all political persuasions, is this:

My constituents have been promised so much on this issue by many Ministers over many years; sadly, they have been let down every time. I am determined that they will not be let down again. I ask the Minister to commit today to ensuring that our hopes for the A303 can become a reality. I know that he is a plain-speaking Yorkshireman. I look for plain speaking in his response to us Wiltshire folk, who are fed up with constant words and little action.

Here, here, John!  Here, here.

John has also written an article for Politics Home yesterday on the A303, which is here, and his column in the Salisbury Journal this week will also focus on it. He was with BBC Wiltshire this morning and he will be continuing to speak to journalists today across a range of media.

We've heard mutterings in some quarters that WiSBAng must be a Tory mouthpiece, given the amount of coverage we have given to John Glen in recent weeks.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  The person hanging over our shoulders as we write this was very active in running the campaign of one of John's competitors at the last general election and curses every time we thank John.  Frankly, this is an issue that transcends party politics.

The bottom line is that we will continue to support all those who make a positive contribution to solving this longstanding problem and we will bring to task those who are "all wind and piss" like some of the tanyard Tories of Wiltshire Council - as James Joyce might have phrased it and probably phrased it better even than John Glen :)  As we said, this issue transcends party politics, so we will be equally snarky about Lazy Lib-Dems, Useless UKIPs, Gormless Greens and Lacklustre Labourites. Praise will be equally fairly distributed.

Some Positive Rumblings From the House of Commons

After a day of Press interest in the STAG campaign to get the A303 dualled as quickly as possible, with reports on the BBC's South Today this morning, we now have a report from STAG's very own man inside the Palace of Westminster.

Our intrepid correspondent observed:

"In short, a positive session in which all agreed the imperative economic need, but many procedural hoops to jump through before we know what the consultation will bring.

There is a general view that a long bore tunnel is much more achievable/acceptable now than it was 10 years ago: financially, technically, socially and archaeologically."






We hope to have more a detailed review in the morning.

Our correspondent ended with the following point.  "Our MP, John Glen, did us proud today!"  Nice to be able to say something like this.

John also forwarded the following update from the Roads Minister, Robert Goodwill:

It will be interesting to see the metrics they propose to use to measure cost benefits - and how they propose to reconcile purely financial factors with less tangible, but equally relevant ones.

LHVs and What They Might Mean for the A303 and the West of England

LHVs - Longer, Heavier Vehicles - have been back in the news again this week, with an interesting story in the Western Gazette of Friday 21st February 2014 with the suitably emotive title of "A303 DUAL IT: New Laws Could See Monster Trucks Wreak Havoc on the A303".

The article begins: "...Mega trucks measuring up to 82ft in length could be allowed into Britain under new EU laws. Draft legislation being considered by the European Parliament would permit lorries longer than two double decker buses, and weighing up to 60 tonnes, to cross international borders for the first time..."

We thought we'd better take a look, and then take a position on this story.  Clearly, the A303 as it stands, is already unsuitable for the types of HGV loads already being carried - especially on the single-carriageway sections which despite Highways Agency bleatings, are too narrow to accommodate the current generation of HGVs.  Roundabouts on the A303 regularly have HGVs overturning on them because they fail to negotiate them at speed.

So, what is the truth about these Mega trucks?  We all know the danger of relying on newspapers of accurate information - on just about anything - so we went back to try and find the origins of this story from some more reputable sources.  We found two interesting reports.  The first "Longer and/or Longer and Heavier Goods Vehicles (LHVs) – a Study of the Likely Effects if Permitted in the UK: Final Report" written by the UK's Transport Research Labs in 2008:

This makes clear that this whole story is nothing new.  In fact, two UK companies pressed to be allowed to trial LFVs in the UK as long ago as 2005, but were refused.  As interest in LFVs was growing in the UK and elsewhere in Europe, the DfT commissioned TRL and Herriott-Watt University.  It's a very long report, but if you are interested, it is well worth reading the Executive Summary and the précis of the findings.  As might be expected, the findings are bit of a curates egg, but overall, it seems to come out in favour - but there were problems anticipated by both the length and the weight of these vehicles.

One interesting finding is reproduced here:

"...If LHVs were to be permitted then European legislation would be very likely to substantially constrain the UKs ability to permit only those specific types of LHV with characteristics considered desirable to protect the UK infrastructure. The current European legislation would also be likely to make it difficult to require the fitting of specific additional safety equipment that could mitigate any increased accident risks. Suitable amendments to the European legislation would be required to be certain of the outcome. The UK regulations on speed limits for multi-trailer combinations would also be likely to require amendment, even if such vehicles were to be permitted by Special Order, because their speed would otherwise be limited to 40 mile/h on motorways and 20 mile/h on all other roads..."

Reading between the lines, we think this is really an admission of it being a case of when it happens and not if it happens.

Another concern was that introducing LFVs might precipitate a shift of freight traffic from rail to road.  Given the loss of the main rail link to the West Country in recent weeks, the pressure to provide a credible alternative can only grow.

The second paper, written for the European Commission in 2009, "Longer and Heavier Vehicles for Freight Transport" is also of interest to us as it begins:

"The European Commission is considering the implications of allowing the use of Longer and Heavier Vehicles a for road freight transport (abbreviated as LHVs in this study), measuring up to 25.25 m and weighing up to 60 tons, for the whole of the European Union transport system. Such trucks are already in circulation in Finland and Sweden, while several Member States are considering their introduction".

So, as we suspected, the Western Gazette is hyping this aspect of their story a wee bit; this is far from a new plan and the EU have been considering it for at least 5 years.  As far as the plan to use them, eventually, in the UK as a whole, it really shouldn't be a surprise.

However, where we would agree with the Western Gazette is in the likely impact on the A303/A358/A30 corridor.  It would be an unmitigated disaster with, we suspect, some dire consequences in terms of lives lost and blighted by accident - all the evidence suggests more accidents per km travelled than for existing HGVs.  They would be horrendous on any of the single carriageway sections of the A303 such as that past Stonehenge and through Winterbourne Stoke, but imagine them trying to negotiate the bends and steep climbs of the Blackdown Hills.

Lest anyone believe that no-one would even consider putting these things on West Country roads as they stand, then this diagram from the report should shatter that illusion:

See the little red dots in Cornwall!  Enough said.

So what is our position on LHVs?  Well, in the short term, even with the rail problems that the West Country now faces and is likely to face in the foreseeable future, we should be robust in keeping them off the A303, the A358 and the A30.  The risk to life and limb is simply too great.

In the longer term. the government has to look at an integrated traffic infrastructure plan for the west of England - providing a sustainable rail link to the tip of Cornwall as well as dualling the A303.  If this can be done, then there may be less of a need for LHV's - though we fear the economic and environmental case for doing so may be hard to overturn. 

Does The Flap Of A Butterfly's Wing in Brazil Cause Traffic Chaos in Shrewton?

I suppose I should apologise to Edward Lorenz, American mathematician, meteorologist and pioneer of chaos theory who, in 1961 published a ground-breaking paper with the somewhat esoteric title of "Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow."  If you are a) a mathematician, b) a meteorologist, or c) an insomniac, by all means read it.  Otherwise, read about it.

Basically, Lorenz's paper and Chaos Theory suggest that a small variation of the starting conditions at one point in a system can have a profound affect somewhere else.  He later reported: "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever."  Seagulls clearly aren't very attractive and 11 years later, the seagull had transformed into a butterfly - and chaos theory never looked back.

So why am I wittering on about all this?  Well, to show how little changes can have huge and, allegedly, unanticipated impacts elsewhere.  After the closure of the A344, Shrewton has seen an increase in traffic on the A360 and other roads into and out of the village; a problem, a nisance, but not life threatening.

A beat of the butterfly's wing in Brazil back at the end of December may well have resulted in a shift in the Jet Stream and the torrential downpours we have experienced ever since.  That in turn has led to a rise in the water table at Tilshead of over 20 metres since December;  not surprising then that the Shrewton to Tilshead road flooded and Wiltshire Council installed traffic lights to allow vehicles to pass safely through the floodwater.  A nuisance, a bit inconvenient, but not life threatening.

On Friday, a half-term weekend when holiday traffic was anticipated on the roads - not to mention those folks heading to Somerset, Deveon and Cornwall to check on flooded properties - there was a minor shunt west of Winterbourne Stoke.  The A303 westbound diversion sign was uncovered at Longbarrow Roundabout and poor motorists conned by a mixture of Highways Agency and Wiltshire Council ineptitude into "following the triangles" - a none-existent diversionary route that takes vehicles off the A303 and then abandons them.  Annoying to all involved, a delay, a right royal pain in the behind, but not life threatening.

But his is what happened on Friday last:

An ambulance on a blue-light run is stuck in heavy traffic in Shrewton - not trivial, not just annoying, but a potential life threatening situation.

Of course, fingers could be pointed at an unknown and unidentifiable butterfly flitting about in a Brazilian rain forest for all these events.  But how much more likely is it that at least some of them were precipitated by another small and completely avoidable event:  the decision to close the A344 without improving the A303 first.

Had the A303 been dualled, there may not have been a crash, the diversion need not have been instituted and the traffic lights, which had worked fine for several days previously, might not have been overwhelmed by the sheer volume of traffic trying to avoid the A303 and the ambulance on a blue light run, need not have been impeded.  A life need not have been put in jeopardy.

This also takes us back to Adam Smith, the 18th century Scottish philosopher, who came up with the concept of the law of unintended consequences - as popularised by the American social scientist, Robert K. Merton in his 1936 paper entitled: The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action." (A little easier to read than Lorenz's paper).

 This examines the unforseen consequences of intentional human interventions.  So whilst the muppets who pressed for, agreed to and allowed the A344 to be closed before the A303 was dualled and those who had fought against dualling the A303 for years to protect Stonehenge might argue that a threat to life was an unforseen consequence of their actions, that claim would bear a little more scrutiny.

The impact of the closure of the A344 without dualling the A303 were widely predicted many years ago. The impact of not dualling the A303 were also predicted years ago. Westbound crashes on the A303 to the west of Winterbourne Stoke on Friday evenings are commonplace.  Diverting traffic off the A303 as a consequence of crashes is also commonplace. Heavy rain happens, very heavy rain and groundwater flooding happens rarely; but it does happen.  Ambulances on blue-light runs drive through Shrewton on the A360.  There is a real probability, however remote a probability that might be,  that all these events will align in time and space as they did last Friday.  This shows the difference between hard science (Lorenz) and softer social sciences (Merton).  Lorenz would have looked at probabilities and chaos theory, whilst followers of Merton fail to anticipate.  Hard science deals in rare, high impact events.  Soft science waffles a bit

So, an ambulance stuck in trafficin Shrewton last Friday is, perhaps, a consequence of a metaphorical butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil and all-too real butterfly brains in the UK not thinking about the predictable consequences of their decision.  Profound or what?

English Heritage - Some Hope For The Future?

On Thursday evening (06/02/2014) , STAG met with representatives of English Heritage in Shrewton.  The purpose of the meeting was twofold and in line with an earlier meeting we had held with the National Trust.  Firstly, we wanted to speak to English Heritage about the forthcoming A303 feasibility study and our desire, if possible, to cooperate with them, in an effort to achieve a result that benefited all.

Second, we pointed out that the closure of the A344, English Heritage's somewhat disingenuous attempts to blame Wiltshire Council for the closure, the subsequent traffic chaos on the A303, the A360 and a raft of other local roads, their failure to comply with specific conditions of the planning permission granted for the construction of the new visitor's centre (including their failure to allow unfettered access to the A344, 24/7 , for everything other than motorized vehicles) and some other minor niggles meant there was a feeling of distrust of English Heritage in the local community.  We also pointed out that this built on issues that had arisen from previous dealings with English Heritage on the A303 over a number of decades.

So, whilst we were being genuine in our desire to work with English Heritage in the future, there were some legacy issues that would need to be addressed before the local community could buy in to this engagement wholeheartedly.

Clearly, this was something of a mixed message and it would have been very easy for the meeting to have become overly acrimonious on our part, or for the English Heritage reps to simply walk away and refuse to engage. 

Neither of those things happened - which was a measure of success in itself.  We also got the feeling that English Heritage perhaps hadn't fully appreciated some of the issues that had so annoyed the local community.   We suggested some short term measures that might be considered as ways of alleviating the traffic problems in the area, on the A303 and on the local roads around Stonehenge, and English Heritage also suggested other ideas.  Collectively, all would be worth raising with other stakeholders like Wiltshire Council,  the Highways Agency and Parish Councils.

All in all, from the STAG perspective, a helpful first meeting.  I say first, because we hope it will not be the last - more meetings will be needed if much of the talk is to be translated into action. 

Perhaps actions speak louder than words?   We have heard just heard indirectly that changes have been made to the access to the A344 from the A360 and it now possible for pedestrians and cyclists to have unfettered access 24/7.  That might sound trivial, but it's a good start.  It is encouraging for the future and something on which we can build.

Blowing £300 Million on Fripperies.

Yesterday, the Daily Telegraph published an interesting article on the £300 million spent so far on the HS2 rail project.  Yes, you read that correctly, £300 million without so much as a sleeper, or length of track being laid.  

When you look at how this has been spent, you really do begin to wonder what is going on.  £700 on iPad covers,  £128,000 on promotional videos; including versions with alternative endings - I assume this covers the eventuality where they manage to build it for £50 million and the alternative, and much more likely scenario, when the costs rise and they come back with a begging bowl to buy a few more iPad covers.   Of course, the majority of this money- some £192 million has been spent on "consultancy" so we can expect to see precious little of any practical value from that.

Sound familiar?   It reminds me of the large sums spent so far in NOT dualing the A303 west from Stonehenge.  It also brings into sharp relief the difference between HS2 and SH2 - the need to dual the A303/A30 along its entire length.  The first is unliked, unwanted and will, according to the politicians, be fully funded - despite growing concerns that the financial case is indefensible.  The second, SH2, is liked, wanted and has a strong financial case.  It makes you wonder about the arse-about-face country in which we live!

Rutting STAG Makes the Economist

 rut (rʌt)

n

1. a groove or furrow in a soft road, caused by wheels

2. any deep mark, hole, or groove

3. a narrow or predictable way of life, set of attitudes, etc; dreary or undeviating routine (esp in the phrase in a rut)

vb, ruts, rutting or rutted

4. (tr) to make a rut or ruts in

[C16: probably from French route road]

I guess that is a pretty fair description of driving backwards and forwards between Airman's Cross and the Longbarrow Roundabout.

Well, who would've guessed it.  STAG and a bunch of bare-breasted maidens from the Loyal Arthurian Warband and our respective demos back on the 18th of December made the illustrious pages of the Economist magazine.

Amazing, staggering and very welcome.  It all adds to the portfolio of publicity that we are bringing to the cause.   You can read the article here: "Written in the Stones" by Bagehot

Our publicity guru observed:  "That's international exposure to the highest political and commercial circles. In 20 years of PR, investor relations and public affairs I have only had a strong enough angle for the Economist 4 times before - requiring the likes of railway disasters, pollution, flu pandemic and drought".

The boy, as they say, done good.

What Wiltshire Council Told the Transport Minister in 2011

There have been several comments, here and on the STAG Facebook page, regarding traffic surveys, their findings and what various stakeholders understood.  Several folks are still under the mistaken impression that closure of the A344 wasn't expected to cause traffic chaos. We thought it might be helpful to let everyone see the key reports and documents that should have been taken notice of at the time they were produced, and subsequently, and which have been ignored, or reneged upon.

So here is our first document of 2014.   What Wiltshire Council then told Tom Harris, the the Minister for Transport.

The whole letter is very useful as it lays out the policy of Wiltshire Council in 2011.   The focus is on the improvement of the A303.  The bottom line is shown in the text surrounded by the first red box.  In 2011, Wiltshire Council did not support the closure of the A344 without an improvement to the A303, precisely because of the impact they expected such a move to have on local communities.

It is of considerable concern to us that Wiltshire Council was not being kept informed of the latest traffic surveys being undertaken by the Highways Agency.  Despite this, and with the foreknowledge of the results of earlier traffic studies, Wiltshire Council reinforced their concerns about the consequences of closure of the A344 in isolation.

Then something happened.

Wiltshire Council changed its policy and, seemingly, allowed the A344 closure to go ahead last year without so much as a whimper.  We've been trying to understand why.  Who made the decision to change the policy so strongly expressed in 2011 and who supported that change.  We are also interested in knowing if any of those involved in the about face had, or have, any connections to those stakeholders who have benefited directly, or indirectly, from the A344 closure.

We've asked Wiltshire Council to explain when this policy changed in several ways, but they are proving hard to pin down.   We even invited Cllr Fleur de Rhé-Phillipe, Wiltshire Council's Cabinet Member for Economy, Skills and Transport, to provide an explanation - first in October 2013 by email and then again in early December.  in her first and only response, the good councillor clearly missed this question, so we restated it in a follow-up email. We didn't even get the courtesy of a reply.

Given that we (WiSBAng, STAG and others) are going to be engaging with other stakeholders during the forthcoming A303 feasibility study, we are going to want to know what Wiltshire Council's A303 policy is, and whose word is to be believed.

We also need to understand whether the elected officials of Wiltshire Council and its employees speak with one voice.  Why?  Well this document from 2005 is pretty self-explanatory (click on document to expand it):

We are particularly taken by the author's apparent relish at dividing [local] opposition - turning Larkhill and Shrewton against Winterbourne Stoke for instance.  That's something we are going to be very aware of this time round and why it is encouraging to see the local villages rallying round and pulling together.   It's worth reflecting that some of the officials associated with this document are likely to be involved in 2014-15.  We will be watching them closely.

The problems associated with the A303, the A344 closure and the consequent rat-running are already going on in our back yards.  There can be no room for NIMBY-ism here, we are already IMBYs!

A303 Survey Results

I thought I would post the results of the three survey questions I had put on the blog when I first started it.   That gives me the opportunity to kick off some more questions in the New Year.  So, here they are:

Since the A344 was closed and Longbarrow roundabout modified, has the traffic on the A303

Increased                       
(88%)

Decreased  
(0%)

Stayed about the same 
(11%)

Well, the surprise here was the 11% who thought traffic levels have stayed about the same - but then again, internet traffic analysis shows that the blog is visited from English Heritage, Highways Agency, Wiltshire Council and other servers run by organisations that might have a vested interest in downplaying the issues.

Since the A344 was closed and the junctions at Longbarrow and Airman's Cross altered, has the traffic using the B3086, B3083, A360 and A36 in Larkhill, Shrewton, W'bourne Stoke, Berwick St James and Stapleford:

Increased a lot  
(88%)

Increased a little
(4%)

Stayed about the same
 (8%)

Reduced
 (0%)
 
So, even a few of those who hadn't noticed any increase of traffic on the A303 had to admit that the there had been rat-running - exactly as earlier surveys had predicted would happen if the A344 was closed without doing something about the A303.

Has John Glenn MP been active enough in pushing for a dual carriageway bypass for Winterbourne Stoke and Stonehenge?

Yes
(20%)

No
(62%)

Don't Know
(14%)

He seems to be anti
(2%)

What can I say?  You, the people, have spoken.  Taken at face value, it suggests that only 1 in 5 of you thinks he is pushing actively enough for improvement to be made to the A303.  In a safe Tory seat, that is very disappointing, especially as being in the Tory heartland, you might expect votes to be skewed a little in his favour.   John's standing did improve slightly after each of the Press reports of his activities in the Commons.  On the negative side, I did hear quite a few folks grumbling that he had not been out with the STAG protest.   Clearly, his constituents would like him to have some more engagement at local level.

Highway Agency Færies Indulge in Futile Night-time Frolic

 One of the things that we, STAG,  noticed, time and time again during the SH2 demonstrations to press for the urgent dualling of the A303 past Stonehenge and Winterbourne Stoke and an end to rat-running brought about by the premature closure of the A344, was just how dangerous negotiating the Longbarrow roundabout was.  Time and time again, eastbound and westbound vehicles on the A303 failed to stop, or even slow significantly, for the roundabout.  When they did stop, they were often several feet into the left hand lane - accidents in the making.

There were several near misses that we witnessed on Tuesday 17th December and it was only by dint of great good luck that none of these resulted in an accident.  This was largely due to the good nature and common sense of the STAG drivers, who frequently gave way to ill-mannered traffic from the left in situations when they were well within their rights to press ahead.

Then overnight on 17th/18th December, the Highways Agency Færies struck. As if by magic, new road markings had appeared.  "Aha", we thought,. "They must have been sprinkling magic dust to to improve safety on the roundabout, to improve traffic flow, to make everyone's life so much easier."

Clearly, after hours going round and round the Longbarrow and Airman's Cross roundabouts, then spent a night having nightmares about it, we were all somewhat delusional.  Far from improving things, the Highways Agency Færies had succeeded in making things worse.  Much, much worse.  It seems they intend to up the accident rate for the winter solstice and the Christmas rush to the West.  Merry Christmas one and All.

We thought we should illustrate the before and after state of the roundabout.  So here we go, travelling south from the Stonehenge Visitors Centre on the A360. On the 17th it looked like this:

 and on the 18th, like this:

Not too much difference here.  But let's go round the roundabout a bit.  Here is another shot from the 17th:

 and on the 18th:

 Oh look, the lanes leading past the westbound entrance of the A303 have changed and we have a new right-turn lane that suddenly starts of the right.  Look also at the two cars ahead of me.  They are, in both cases, following the natural line round the roundabout - which isn't defined by any of the white lines.

Going a bit further round the roundabout past the southern exit for the A360, we see this on the 17th:

 and on the 18th, we see this:

 We now have the appearance of a dotted line that cuts across the 3 lanes of moving traffic at 45 degrees - a recipe for disaster.  It seems to be there to encourage westbound traffic to plough into southbound or westbound traffic from the A360 - or to sit in lanes across the roundabout.   Note that there appear to be no "Keep Clear" signs any more.  These silly lines lead across to the westbound A303 exit from the roundabout.

And here we have the exit back north along the A360 on the 17th December.   Note how the natural route off the roundabout takes you into the left hand lane of the A360.  The right-hand lane is in the wrong place entirely - as it is on each of the other three exit lanes.  Obviously designed by folks who had never used a roundabout in their lives!

On the 18th, we get:

More dotted lines guiding the eastbound A303 traffic - which the northbound traffic has to cross at 45 degrees to leave the roundabout.  Again, the second vehicle follows the natural line off the roundabout and keeps in the left-hand lane.

I predict that from this weekend, we are going to see an increase in accidents where northbound and southbound traffic on the A360 is "T-boned" on the passenger's side by eastbound and westbound traffic on the A303.

Given that the roundabout planners employed by the Highways Agency don't appear to have much of a clue about road design and the Highways Agency themselves even less of one, judging by the way their randomly shoving down road markings seems only to have made matters worse, why don't they try the blindingly obvious for a week or two.  Stick a 360 degree video camera at high level in the middle of the roundabout and determine the consensus routes worked out by the road users themselves.  When you've got that information, mark the road accordingly!

Round and Round Like Demented Hamsters!

...well, after two days of driving between Airman's Cross (perhaps someone should point out to Wiltshire Council that calling a roundabout "Airman's Corner" is stupid on every level!) and Longbarrow Roundabout, the dedicated few had definitely begun to feel like demented hamsters.

It was a great pleasure to see Ian West, the Lib-Dem Wiltshire Councillor for the Till & Wylye Valley Division and Chair of the Winterbourne Stoke Parish Council at the head of the procession.  But as a friend on Twitter (#tragicyclist) pointed out - John Glen MP (Con) was rather noticeable by his absence.

Thanks to all who took part over the two days - we achieved STAG's aim of getting publicity and considering what a young organisation we are, have done surprisingly well. Why did people come ot to demonstrate at all in such an IMBY, rather than NIMBY, way?  Good question. well posed.  

Well, if you live with the A303 day-after-day, or you are a villager harassed by impatient rat-runners, it all gets very personal.  As one dear friend, who used to live in Winterbourne Stoke, said to me earlier in the week: "I'm not the sort of person who ever comes out to demonstrate - about anything.  But this is different.  People died at the bottom of my drive."

Special thanks, yet again, to Wiltshire Constabulary.  While the "Grey Ghost" of yesterday was noticeable by his absence from his muddy field gate, a marked police car did join our procession for several circuits - good to see such stolid support from so unexpected a quarter.  But saying that, Wiltshire Police are the poor beggars who have to clear up the carnage on the A303 every time there is an accident - perhaps their participation shouldn't have been so unexpected.

We'll let you know when our next activity is planned and what and where it will be.  St Valentine's Day could be a favourite - as that is the day Stonehenge changes it's admissions policy to booking in advance - and there could be some traffic problems as a result.  Alternatively, any of the Bank Holiday weekends next year look promising.

As for suitable themes - that's a bit harder.   We did think of "Re-home a Mole Day" (Just don't ask!) and abandoned that idea on grounds of animal cruelty and practicality.  However, advertising the new year as "2014 The Year of Rock - Bring One of Your Own to Stonehenge" could have very helpful consequences.   If every person who went to visit Stonehenge took a 1 kg chunk of rock - preferably inscribed with an apposite hand-carved graffito - these could be piled alongside the A303 to help screen the stones from the road (or should that be the other way around).   English Heritage will be delighted, I'm sure, as at a stroke they will achieve their widh of isolation, will have a much better idea of how people can move huge quantities of rock to Wiltshire and the graffito will ensure more mysteries at Stonehenge for future archaeologists. 

So, demo over, I decided to pop into the new Stonehenge Visitor's Centre and see for myself what it was like.  After all - our protest has nothing to do with Stonehenge itself, or the New Visitor's Centre, or the staff who are employed there.  We are just not great fans of English Heritage.

I wanted to be amazed, I wanted to be impressed, I wanted to see that £27 million had been well-spent...